Курс доллара. Прогноз на 28 апреля–2 мая — Коммерсантъ

Мнения и прогнозы аналитиков о том, как будет вести себя рубль

По итогам минувшей недели рублю не удалось развить успех, обозначенный в первые дни отчетного периода. Если в понедельник внебиржевой курс доллара опускался до минимума за два года — 80,36 руб./$, то к закрытию торгов среды вернулся выше уровня 83 руб./$. В пятницу он закрепился возле отметки 82,60 руб./$, что почти на 60 коп выше значений закрытия предшествующей недели. Официальный курс доллара, рассчитываемый Банком России, вырос за неделю более чем на 1,5 руб., до отметки 82,65 руб./$. Разворот курса произошел на фоне ухудшения геополитического фона из-за срыва переговоров в Лондоне по урегулированию украинского конфликта, а также общей перегретости курса рубля.

Банки Прогноз курса доллара (руб./$)
Банк Русский Стандарт 82.00-85.00
Банк Зенит 81.00-83.00
«БКС Мир инвестиций» 81.00-84.00
ПС 84.00-86.00
«Цифра банк» 80.00-84.00
Консенсус-прогноз * 83.00

* Консенсус-прогноз рассчитывался как среднее арифметическое прогнозов аналитиков Предыдущий слайд «Цифра банк» ПС «БКС Мир инвестиций» Банк Зенит Банк Русский Стандарт Следующий слайд

Дмитрий Рожков,
директор казначейства

Российская национальная валюта продолжит торговаться в диапазоне 80–84 руб./$

Мы продолжаем считать, что рубль находится на пике своего укрепления, хотя дополнительную локальную поддержку рублю перед майскими праздниками может оказать налоговый период. Волатильность мировых финансовых рынков наверняка продолжит вносить спекулятивные факторы в динамику курса рубля, но мы ожидаем, что на следующей короткой рабочей неделе российская национальная валюта продолжит торговаться в диапазоне 80–84 руб./$.

Богдан Зварич,
управляющий по анализу банковского и финансового рынков

Коррективы в динамику рубля могут внести новости с геополитического трека

На уходящей неделе российский рубль ослаб по отношению к основным мировым валютам. Так, курс юаня на Московской бирже вновь протестировал поддержку на уровне 11 руб., после чего перешел к восстановлению, отыграв часть потерь, понесенных неделей ранее. При этом к концу недели китайская валюта закрепилась в середине диапазона 11–11,5 руб. На предстоящей короткой рабочей неделе, на наш взгляд, рубль может перейти к ослаблению. Несмотря на возможность удержания цен на нефть марки Brent в диапазоне $65–70 за баррель, что позитивно для национальной валюты, спрос на рубль может снизиться, что будет связано с прохождением апрельского пика налоговых выплат. Плюс к этому в преддверии длинных выходных часть инвесторов может перейти к фиксации прибыли по длинным позициям в рубле, что окажет некоторое давление на национальную валюту. В такой ситуации пара юань/рубль может попытаться продолжить восстановление, начатое на этой неделе, и предпринять попытку преодоления уровня 11,5 руб. Отметим, что коррективы в динамику рубля могут внести новости с геополитического трека, которые могут способствовать как росту волатильности, так и направленному движению рубля.

Илья Федоров,
главный экономист

После налоговой недели ожидаем постепенное ослабление рубля

Рубль прошел налоговую неделю без особой волатильности. Курс был в среднем около 81 руб./$. Допускаем усиление волатильности курса в понедельник — единый день уплаты налогов, когда кому-то будет нужно продать валюту для закрытия налоговых обязательств. После налоговой недели ожидаем постепенное ослабление рубля на фоне сокращения предложения валюты. В предпраздничный период не ожидаем повышенного спроса на валюту. По нашим оценкам, рубль большую часть следующей недели будет оставаться в диапазоне 81–84 руб./$.

Марина Никишова,
главный экономист

Риски ослабления рубля усиливаются

Российский рубль продолжает пока держаться в диапазоне 81–83 руб./$ преимущественно на фоне ожиданий инвесторов улучшения геополитической ситуации. Однако отсутствие быстрых геополитических подвижек и давление на нефтяные цены способны быстро ослабить национальную валюту. На наш взгляд, риски ослабления рубля усиливаются, особенно при текущих ценах на нефть, которые могут привести к снижению экспортных доходов. Совокупно с ожидаемым ростом импорта из-за сезонно растущего спроса, это способно вернуть рубль в справедливый диапазон 90–95 руб./$ уже на коротком горизонте. Во втором квартале 2025 ожидаем колебания курсов юаня и евро в диапазонах 12,3–12,5 руб./CNY и 102–103 руб./€ соответственно. Максим Тимошенко

Максим Тимошенко,
директор департамента операций на финансовых рынках

Не на стороне рубля может оказаться рост спроса на иностранную валюту в преддверии майских праздников и сезона путешествий

В начале недели рубль продолжит получать поддержку от конца налогового периода. Однако не стоит забывать, что слишком крепкий рубль невыгоден бюджету, а также способен оказать давление на нефтегазовые доходы. Не на стороне рубля может оказаться и традиционный ежегодный рост спроса на иностранную валюту в преддверии майских праздников и сезона путешествий. При этом оптимизма российскому рынку добавили свежие сведения о росте ВВП в январе-феврале на 1,9% в годовом выражении, а также обрабатывающей промышленности на 5% соответственно. В фокусе на российском рынке — решение регулятора оставить ключевую ставку неизменной. Оно было ожидаемо рынком и продиктовано текущими инфляционными реалиями.

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    Your physique might have stopped producing testosterone during your cycle, so it’s necessary to stimulate it again. You can do this with a testosterone booster or a selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) corresponding to Clomid or Nolvadex. In conclusion, whereas Anavar is taken into account a gentle steroid, it still carries some dangers. It is important to pay attention to the potential side effects and to take steps to mitigate them. If you expertise any unfavorable side effects whereas taking Anavar, cease taking it instantly and seek the advice of together with your physician. This is crucial as a result of in order to create an anabolic environment within the physique, the place new muscle tissue is being synthesized, a constructive nitrogen stability is crucial. As A Result Of of this lots of the ‘hardcore’ bodybuilders tend to make use of more toxic steroids, as a outcome of on paper it’s a weaker compound.
    Nevertheless, managing expectations about Anavar’s capabilities and limitations can additionally be important. It’s essential to do not neglect that individual responses to anabolic steroids can range, so monitoring your physique’s response and adjusting your strategy as wanted is key. Consulting with healthcare professionals or educated coaches can present valuable steerage and support all through the method. Not Like many other steroids, Anavar is comparatively delicate and doesn’t trigger the identical kind of virilization effects that other steroids can. Ladies who take Anavar can expect to see a rise in lean muscle mass, as properly as a discount in body fats.
    Nevertheless, the success with Primo doesn’t solely depend on the steroid itself. It’s a group effort, from a well-adjusted food regimen and robust train routine, to relaxation and restoration, prudent dosage, and thoughtful cycle planning, all of those have an element to play. One Other issue largely influencing the impression of a slicing cycle is the Primo utilization length. Shorter cycles are generally preferred by beginners, while extra skilled customers might prolong their cycle to reap the complete rewards of Primo’s fat-burning properties.
    It is also crucial for feminine bodybuilders to provoke their Anavar cycle with the bottom dosage and closely monitor any unwanted aspect effects. For males, the recommended dosage of Anavar ranges from 20mg to 50mg per day. It is advised to start out with a lower dosage and gradually improve it to reduce the risk of unwanted effects. In most instances, male bodybuilders opt for a dosage of 30mg to 50mg per day to attain desired outcomes while limiting unwanted aspect effects.
    Food Plan, training, cycle size, dosage, different compounds used, and your body sort and metabolism will all factor into your outcomes. Inside the first few weeks of your Tren cycle, you might add one hundred lbs to your bench press. It doesn’t mean you want to simply because you’ll be able to; being mindful of harm is crucial. Including substantial weight to your lifts throughout your first Tren cycle will put large stress on joints, tendons, and muscle tissue earlier than they’ve had time to adapt to the new weight. Girls who use Tren Ace are nearly sure to undergo from virilizing unwanted effects – remember that Trenbolone’s androgenic ranking is a large 500.
    This is as a outcome of it has the power to assist in reducing body fats while sustaining muscle mass. Its anabolic nature means it focuses on targeting fat shops whereas offering a lift to the metabolic rate. Users might discover a drop in physique fat percentages with proper food plan and train whereas using Anavar, typically without compromising lean muscle mass.
    Your liver has to course of Anavar, and sometimes that puts an excessive quantity of stress on it, which can result in harm. Anavar can mess together with your body’s pure manufacturing of hormones, including testosterone. This can result in things like changes in mood, zits, hair loss, and for men, typically breast tissue growth. Ladies can experience virilization, which means creating male characteristics like a deeper voice, elevated physique hair, or menstrual adjustments. It’s really essential to understand that these side effects can happen, and that they could not go away even if you cease utilizing Anavar. By rigorously monitoring dosages, cycle lengths, and post-cycle remedy, individuals can maximize the advantages of this stack whereas minimizing potential unwanted effects. Moreover, many have seen significant enhancements of their overall physique, with a leaner and more outlined look.
    However, anecdotally, we do not see the identical muscle-building properties in people. Thus, an Anavar and clenbuterol cycle might improve fats loss whereas reasonably increasing muscle hypertrophy and power. Nevertheless, Andriol doesn’t cause any notable hepatic pressure, based mostly on long-term analysis. A 10-year research of men utilizing Andriol observed no notable increase in alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels. Anavar could also be thought of by some customers for a cycle, however novices ought to be prudent, because the drawbacks of utilizing anabolic steroids, similar to Anavar, can outweigh the potential benefits. When figuring out the suitable dosages of Testosterone and Anavar in your cycle, it’s essential to contemplate individual components such as age, weight, and experience. The advantages of an Anavar and Take A Look At E cycle are quite a few and may tremendously improve your physique and efficiency.
    A study has proven that top doses of Anavar may cause cardiac transforming via increased angiotensin-converting enzyme expression, causing vasoconstriction (6). This can enhance the danger of atherosclerosis and myocardial infarction, causing doubtlessly deadly outcomes in weak or compromised individuals in regard to cardiac health. However, if customers eat in a calorie surplus, fat loss is likely to be lower than that illustrated above. Thus, diet remains an necessary think about figuring out physique composition on Anavar.

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