Котировки золота после достижения исторического рекорда стоимости в конце апреля (почти 3506 долл. за тройскую унцию) упали почти на 8%: сейчас металл торгуется в диапазоне 3200-3250 долл. Драгметалл подешевел из-за передышки в торговой войне США и Китая. Однако сама по себе протекционистская торговая политика американской администрации никуда не делась. Поэтому, даже если золото в ближайшее время и опустится ниже психологических 3000 долл., у него вскоре есть шансы не только повторить, но и обновить исторический максимум цены.
На прошлой неделе ситуация вокруг торгового конфликта между США и Китаем получила решение, хоть и временное. Запредельные и не имеющие экономического смысла трехзначные пошлины были снижены: обе страны согласились опустить их сроком на 90 дней и работать над новым торговым соглашением. Пока американские пошлины на китайские товары снижены до 30%, китайские пошлины на американские товары — до 10%.
Инвесторы снова поверили в доллар, но, возможно, это ненадолго
«Это вызвало вновь рост доллара США, соответственно, из золота, которое ранее выглядело как самая надежная «тихая гавань» для инвестора, капиталы вновь начали перетекать в доллары. Все-таки у доллара, несмотря на то что доверие к нему значительно подорвано, есть преимущество перед золотом и иными драгметаллами в виде более высокой ликвидности, так как это валюта, а не металл», — говорит ведущий аналитик Freedom Finance Global Наталья Мильчакова. Однако из-за протекционистской политики США и возможных перебоев в мировой торговле ситуация в мире в целом, а также в американской экономике выглядит достаточно неопределенной и непростой, добавляет она.
Улучшающиеся экономические перспективы в США могут в краткосрочной перспективе оказывать давление на золото, но глобально геополитическая неопределенность пока никуда не ушла, соглашается главный экономист банка «Зенит» Марина Никишова. Инвесторов насторожило понижение агентством Moody’s долгосрочного рейтинга США, а обеспокоенность уровнем госдолга Штатов вызывает стремление инвесторов хеджировать инфляцию, что поддерживает интерес к защитным активам. По-прежнему высок спрос на золото со стороны мировых центробанков, это тоже фактор разгона цены.
«Мы не исключаем и более глубокую коррекцию цен (чуть ниже 3000 долл. за унцию), но затем вероятность продолжения восходящей динамики и возврат в диапазон 3450-3500 долл. за унцию остается очень высокой», — прогнозирует Никишова. К концу года драгметалл может подорожать и до 3500-3700 долл., допускает она.
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